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Basis
Quantity take-offs and benchmarks
Service
Build or review the estimate
Principle
bottom-up, every item justified
400+
turnarounds and projects as our base of experience
Why the estimate decides
The most dangerous number is the one everyone believes in.
A budget is only as good as the estimate behind it. Unclear accuracy and flat-rate contingencies reliably lead to budget overruns and discussions.
A good estimate makes two things visible: the accuracy – how reliable is the number? – and the risk – what can move it, and in which direction? That is exactly what distinguishes a basis for decisions from a ballpark figure. Disclosing both prevents the most dangerous illusion in the project business: a falsely precise number that everyone believes in until reality catches up with it.
Swipe sideways to view →Both estimates arrive at the same total. Only one of them can explain how it was reached and how far it may still move. Illustrative values, not amounts.
The rough estimate is part of the Feasibility Analysis; it becomes more accurate with every project phase. Once the budget is set, it is controlled against the same structure – through Cost Control or as Project Controls on demand. Where benchmarks for the early phase are missing, DICTUM provides them from completed projects.
Scope of services
What a sound estimate includes
We estimate transparently and verifiably – at the accuracy each project phase requires.
Accuracy classes
From the rough order-of-magnitude estimate (AACE Class 5) to the control estimate (Class 1) – matched to the maturity of the project. The accuracy depends on how much is actually fixed already.
Bottom-up from the quantities
Work packages along the work breakdown structure, plus unit rates or benchmarks for each package – traceable down to the individual line item.
Risk-based contingency
A justified range derived from the project risks instead of a flat mark-up. Anyone can read what the contingency is for.
Budget & bid review
Independent review of third-party estimates and change orders – the neutral second opinion before you approve or award.
Cost breakdown structure (CBS)
A clean structure as the basis for later cost control: estimating and control follow the same logic, otherwise plan cannot be compared with actual.
What you gain
What you gain
A sound basisFor approvals and investment decisions that still hold later on.
Reliable from the startAccuracy and range are stated from the outset and narrow with each project phase.
VerifiabilityEvery line item is justified – and therefore negotiable, internally as well as with the contractor.
Clean handoverThe estimate connects directly to Cost Control.
NeutralityIndependent review with no interest of our own in the size of the total.
Our approach
From quantities to an accuracy range
Four steps – and the result is not a single number but a justified total with known accuracy.
01
Break down
First the quantities: what has to be built, installed, tested and documented? The work breakdown structure sets the structure, and each work package gets its quantity. An estimate without quantities is an opinion.
02
Price
Every line item with unit rates or benchmarks from comparable projects. Where there is no sound basis, this is openly marked as an assumption – not covered up.
03
Evaluate
The risks are assessed individually and the contingency is derived from them. Together with the accuracy class, this gives a range instead of a falsely precise number – and therefore an honest basis for decisions.
04
Hand over
The cost structure goes into cost control exactly as it was estimated. Only then can every later variance be traced to the line item where it arose.
Context
When we are called in
Three moments – what they have in common is that a signature is due soon.
01Before budget approvalWhen the preferred option has to become a figure that stands up in the committee.02Before contract awardAs an independent review of third-party estimates and bids – before anything is signed.03During ongoing change ordersWhen it needs to be clarified whether a claim is justified and what it is actually worth.
Why is a budget overrun usually built in right at the start?
Because their cause often lies in an overly optimistic estimate: missing items, quantities set too tight, forgotten costs for site facilities and equipment. On site, the overrun merely becomes visible – it was built in long before. A reliable estimate is therefore the basis of staying on budget.
Does ep-cm also review contractors’ bids?
Yes. We check quantities, prices and completeness for plausibility, neutrally, and identify where a bid is priced too tightly and change orders become likely as a result. A conspicuously low bid therefore deserves a second look.
How does ep-cm build up an estimate?
Consistently bottom-up from quantity take-offs instead of lump-sum estimates. Every line item gets a traceable basis – a unit rate, a benchmark or a flagged assumption. This makes the estimate verifiable and negotiable, line item by line item.
What does an independent budget review before contract award achieve?
A stronger negotiating position and fewer variations. If you know where a bid is priced too tight, you can settle it before signing rather than during the project. The review usually saves more than it costs.
What does an estimate or a budget review cost?
We charge by the hour, by day rates or at a fixed price – we work out together which model fits. The effort depends on the size of the project and the accuracy class you need. A review is considerably faster than building an estimate from scratch. For a first indication, the project scope and timing are enough for us. The initial call is free of charge.
Terms such as cost estimate and accuracy range are explained in our glossary – along with 58 other terms from the turnaround and project business.
Do you know how accurate your number is?
Get in touch – we will look at your estimate or your project and tell you where it holds up and where it needs more work. Initial call free of charge.